A new poll of unemployed Americans finds that
almost half of them have given up looking for a job. That casts a depressing
light on the debate over why the labor force participation rate has rolled
downhill in recent years. Folks saying the economy isn't as sucky as it looks
claim that demographic changes—especially an aging population—drive the plunge.
Others say the job market is sluggish at best and that people are just giving
up. The poll lends support for that depressing second bunch—and maybe for the
idea that some job seekers need a nudge.
The April poll of
1,500 unemployed, conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of Express Employment
Professionals, finds some not-so-encouraging results:
47 percent agree with the statement, "I've completely given up on looking
for a job." (7 percent said they "agree completely," 7 percent "agree a lot,"
15 percent "agree somewhat," and 18 percentgagree a little.h)
46 percent report not having gone on any job interviews in the prior
month. Among those unemployed for more than two years, 71 percent report not
having gone on any interviews in the prior month.
23 percent say their last interview was in 2012 or before.
60 percent say looking for work has been harder than expected. 10 percent
say itfs been easier than expected.
In recent years, the Labor Force Participation
Rate nosedived from above 66 percent of the potential workforce to below 63
percent, which is the lowest level since 1978. This has engendered much rending
of garments and gnashing of teeth—and the public debate mentioned above about
"why."
An
aging work force gets some of the "credit" for the drop. Americans age and
retire and there are relatively fewer young workers to take their place. A
report from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, published earlier this
year, attributed about two-thirds of the decline since 2000 to a combination of
retirement and disability, with a surge in retiring Baby Boomers over the past
couple of years. (Disturbingly, "the number of disabled
persons has been steadily rising.")*
But the report found that discouraged workers, with a big increase in that
category during the recession, explained 30 percent of declining labor force
participation. In addition, "nonparticipation due to schooling has been steadily
increasing," which could well reflect another form of dropping out, as potential
workers continue along or return to the education track after taking a look at
the job market.
The poll does raise some concerns over whether all turned-off job seekers are
willing to go the extra mile to find a paying gig. Forty-four percent are not
willing to change towns in search of work, and 60 percent won't cross a state
line.
That might have something to do with the 72 percent who call unemployment
compensation a "cushion" and the 48 percent who say they "haven't had to look
for work as hard" because of it.
Or maybe they just think things are lousy all over.